Second wave crystallizes Indias downside risks

币游国际网

2021-05-22

SHIYU/CHINADAILYIndiasescalatinghealthburden,falteringvaccinationrate,andlackofaconvincinggovernmentstrategytocontainthenovelcoronaviruspandemichavepromptedus(atOxfordEconomics)sGDPtocontractsequentiallyinthesecondquarterasmoreandmorestatesresorttostricterlockdownstocontainthepandemic,-,furtherdownwardrevisionmaybewarrantedifstrugglinghealthsystemsforcemajorregions,includingMaharashtra,KarnatakaandDelhi,,wehadidentifiedfourpotentiallyinter-linkedsourcesofdownsiderisktoourGDPforecast:arapidspreadofthesecondwaveleadingtotightersocialdistancingmeasures,aslowingvaccinationrate,there-introductionofhardlockdownsbythecentralorstategovernments,,therapidlyswellingsecondwavehastakenabigtollonIndia,wit,,however,thecentralgovernmentslockdown,itcoachandhaspushedseveralstatestosignificantlytightensocialdistancingmeasures,evenimposecompletelockdowns,,thegovernmenthasoflateapprovedseveralinternationalvaccines,givengrantstodomesticcompaniestoexpandtheirvaccineproductio,,,weexpectGDPtocontractonceagaininthesecondquarterofthisyear,,shorter,,theIndianprimeministeradvisedstatestonotimposeblanketlockdownsandinsteadfocuson"micro-containment"ch,itlargelyreflectedtightrestrictionsinMaharashtra,Chhattisgarh,snationallockdownandallowformoremovementofgoods,,,,mobilitylevelsinUttarPradesh-Indiasmostpopulousstatewheredailycasecountsanddeathshaverisenrapidly-remainedwellabovethoseofMaharashtra,whichhasthehighestcasecount,,,whenactivitystagedasteepreboundfromthelockdownlowsevenasCOVID-19casescontinuedtoclimb,(asevidencedbythedownwardrevisiontoourgrowthforecast)cantbedisputed,thed,snatiosingburdenonthehealthinfrastructure,theriskthatmoreregionsmayhactivity,necessitatinganotherdownwardrevisiontoourforecast,especiallysincethelargerandmoreeconomicallyimportantregionsarebearingthebrutnecessarilyreflectthoseofChinaDaily.。